Summary of my beliefs
This is my version of the table created by Brian Tomasik[1] and Pablo Stafforini.[2] Like Pablo, confidence is operationalized as my estimate of whether I would change my mind if I spent more time thinking about the topic.
| Belief | Inside view probability | Confidence | Probability after social update | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.) | ||||
| Eternalism on philosophy of time | ||||
| Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems | ||||
| By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 | ||||
| Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled | ||||
| Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) | ||||
| Soft AGI takeoff | ||||
| "Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?" Answer: nominalism | ||||
| A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all | ||||
| Moral anti-realism | ||||
| The universe/multiverse is finite | ||||
| Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens | ||||
| Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future | ||||
| By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past | ||||
| Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it | ||||
| Crop cultivation prevents net suffering | ||||
| Compatibilism on free will | ||||
| Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing | ||||
| The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a | ||||
| "Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?" Answer: subjective | ||||
| Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness | ||||
| Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents | ||||
| Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build | ||||
| The Foundational Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future | ||||
| At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous | ||||
| Modal realism | ||||
| Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI | ||||
| Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future | ||||
| Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin) | ||||
| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) | ||||
| The Machine Intelligence Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future | ||||
| A full world government will develop before human-level AGI | ||||
| Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox | ||||
| Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle | ||||
| Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future | ||||
| Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort |
