Fractional progress argument for AI timelines
The fractional progress argument for AI timelines or the extrapolation argument for AI timelines takes existing trends in AI progress as well as some cutoff level for AGI to extrapolate when we will get AGI.
"One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress." https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/
"How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors
MTAIR project also uses (as one of its many estimation methods) trends for rate of automation (with the cutoff that at 100% automation we will have AGI).