Fractional progress argument for AI timelines

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"One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress." https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/

"How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors