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• List of disagreements in AI safety
  ...sagreements in AI safety''' which collects the list of things people in AI safety seem to most frequently and deeply disagree about. ...d/1wI21XP-lRa6mi5h0dq_USooz0LpysdhS/view Clarifying some key hypotheses in AI alignment].</ref> (there are more posts like this, i think? find them)
  21 KB (3,254 words) - 11:00, 26 February 2022
• AI safety field consensus
  People in [[AI safety]] tend to [[List of disagreements in AI safety|disagree about many things]]. However, there is also wide agreement about s * advanced AI will have a huge impact on the world
  2 KB (272 words) - 01:33, 13 May 2020
• AI will solve everything argument against AI safety
  ...(all of our other problems are so pressing that we're willing to gamble on AI working out by default). I don't think this argument makes much sense. ...at’s one of the reasons why I’m focusing on AI safety, rather than bio-safety.</p>
  1 KB (261 words) - 20:02, 23 June 2021
• My current thoughts on the technical AI safety pipeline (outside academia)
  * [[AI safety technical pipeline does not teach how to start having novel thoughts]] * [[AI safety is not a community]]
  931 bytes (138 words) - 01:30, 20 May 2020
• AI safety technical pipeline does not teach how to start having novel thoughts
  Currently, the [[AI safety community]] does not have an explicit mechanism for teaching new people how [[Category:AI safety meta]]
  1 KB (225 words) - 02:28, 28 March 2021
• AI safety is not a community
  ...lly, I think I've been in communities before, and being a part of the [[AI safety community]] does not feel like that. * AI safety has left the "hobbyist stage". People can actually now get paid to think ab
  894 bytes (159 words) - 02:28, 28 March 2021
• AI safety lacks a space to ask stupid or ballsy questions
  [[Category:AI safety meta]]
  1 KB (198 words) - 02:28, 28 March 2021
• Timeline of my involvement in AI safety
  [[Category:AI safety meta]]
  283 bytes (42 words) - 21:27, 18 May 2020
• AI safety is harder than most things
  ...nice thank you letter from a different person. In contrast, working on AI safety feels like .... there's absolutely no feedback on whether I'm doing anythin When you've been at AI safety for too long, you're so used to just "[staring] at a blank sheet of paper u
  1 KB (190 words) - 02:28, 28 March 2021
• Nobody understands what makes people snap into AI safety
  ...g else to work on AI safety''. Cue all the rationalists who "believe in AI safety" but don't do anything about it. ..., and the people who are actually spending their full-time attention on AI safety? I think this is a very important question, and I don't think anybody under
  2 KB (268 words) - 02:35, 28 March 2021
• Newcomers in AI safety are silent about their struggles
  ...tty hard to find people openly complaining about how to get involved in AI safety. You can find some random comments, and there are occasional Facebook threa # For people who want to do technical AI safety research, how are they deciding between MIRI vs Paul vs other technical age
  1 KB (195 words) - 02:35, 28 March 2021
• Mass shift to technical AI safety research is suspicious
  ...rough existing evidence and getting better evidence (e.g. from progress in AI research), rather than due to less virtuous reasons like groupthink/prestig [[Category:AI safety meta]]
  910 bytes (138 words) - 02:35, 28 March 2021
• List of thought experiments in AI safety
  ...[[Counterfactual of dropping a seed AI into a world without other capable AI]] [[Category:AI safety]]
  448 bytes (72 words) - 07:27, 20 May 2020
• List of arguments against working on AI safety
  This is a '''list of arguments against working on AI safety'''. Personally I think the only one that's not totally weak is opportunity ...out how to affect the long-term future. See also [[Pascal's mugging and AI safety]].
  8 KB (1,245 words) - 00:29, 24 July 2022
• List of AI safety projects I could work on
  * writing some sort of overview of my beliefs regarding AI safety. like, if i was explaining things from scratch to someone, what would that * my current take on [[AI timelines]] (vacation tier)
  6 KB (927 words) - 14:25, 4 February 2022
• How meta should AI safety be?
  I often go back and forth between the following two approaches to AI safety: ...s/conferences. Trust that making a better community will lead to better AI safety work being done.
  873 bytes (144 words) - 02:33, 28 March 2021
• Pascal's mugging and AI safety
  ...to [[Pascal's mugging]]. The critic of AI safety argues that working on AI safety has a very small probability of a very big payoff, which sounds suspicious. * Argue that reducing x-risk from AI safety is more like a 1% chance than like an astronomically small chance.
  1 KB (147 words) - 22:16, 17 November 2020
• Pascal's mugging argument against AI safety
  #redirect [[Pascal's mugging and AI safety]]
  44 bytes (6 words) - 23:24, 12 November 2020
• Unintended consequences of AI safety advocacy argument against AI safety
  ...as to cause the creation of DeepMind and OpenAI, and to accelerate overall AI progress. I’m not saying that he’s necessarily right, and I’m not say * [[List of arguments against working on AI safety]]
  2 KB (353 words) - 21:23, 6 November 2021
• Is AI safety no longer a scenius?
  ...rofessionalized and prestigious. As Nielsen says (abstractly, not about AI safety in particular): "A field that is fun and stimulating when 50 people are inv ...as scenius? Or try to work on [[mechanism design]] so that the larger [[AI safety community]] is more functional than existing "eternal september" type event
  2 KB (337 words) - 02:34, 28 March 2021
• Emotional difficulties of AI safety research
  ...ties arising from the subject matter itself, without reference to the [[AI safety community]] * [[AI safety has many prerequisites]]
  950 bytes (132 words) - 18:25, 18 July 2021
• Doomer argument against AI safety
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  172 bytes (19 words) - 20:55, 18 March 2022

Page text matches

• Main Page
  * [[:Category:AI safety]] -- notes on AI safety strategy
  572 bytes (84 words) - 21:22, 19 March 2021
• Stupid questions
  ...ent of the insights), what does that mean, in terms of what to do about AI safety? ...lw2.issarice.com/posts/mJ5oNYnkYrd4sD5uE/clarifying-some-key-hypotheses-in-ai-alignment] captures some of these, but i don't think this is a minimal set
  3 KB (528 words) - 20:58, 26 March 2021
• Carl Shulman
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  315 bytes (43 words) - 21:52, 28 November 2020
• Whole brain emulation
  ...standing is that MIRI people/other smart people have prioritized technical AI alignment over WBEs because while WBEs would be safer if they came first, p * is there anything else relevant to AI strategy that i should know about?
  6 KB (850 words) - 19:16, 27 February 2021
• Secret sauce for intelligence
  ...n AI safety. Resolving this is important for thinking about the shape of [[AI takeoff]]. ...mpy]]", i.e. coming in a small number of chunks that contribute greatly to AI capabilities; there are a small number of discrete insights required to cre
  13 KB (1,917 words) - 23:45, 19 May 2021
• Different senses of claims about AGI
  ...rstand good consequentialist reasoning in order to design a highly capable AI system, I’d be less worried by a decent margin." the general MIRI view th ...ve this for aligned AI systems, but not believe it for unaligned/arbitrary AI systems.
  1 KB (212 words) - 22:14, 28 April 2020
• List of teams at OpenAI
  * Safety [https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/danny-hernandez-forecasting-ai-progress/] ...nking that enable humans to meaningfully understand, supervise and control AI systems." [http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:WxgzREJyPTk
  6 KB (882 words) - 05:20, 7 October 2020
• Hardware-driven vs software-driven progress
  https://aiimpacts.org/how-ai-timelines-are-estimated/ ...strategy is the best approach." [https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615181/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/
  649 bytes (76 words) - 03:59, 26 April 2020
• Soft-hard takeoff
  ...e there is a stereotypical "soft takeoff" until around the point where the AI has somewhat-infra-human level general intelligence, and then once it cross ...the prior emergence of potentially-strategically-decisive AI — that is, AI capabilities that are potentially decisive when employed by some group of i
  8 KB (1,206 words) - 01:43, 2 March 2021
• Simple core of consequentialist reasoning
  ...e is a small core of good consequentialist reasoning that is important for AI capabilities and that can be discovered through theoretical research." http [[Category:AI safety]]
  1 KB (217 words) - 19:11, 27 February 2021
• Analyzing disagreements
  ...tions about disagreements, particularly disagreements in ai safety about [[AI timelines]], [[takeoff speed]], [[simple core algorithm of agency]], and so ...t strong arguments on multiple sides.) Given this theory, it feels like AI safety should be a one-sided debate; it's a simple matter of fact, so we shouldn't
  7 KB (1,087 words) - 22:52, 8 February 2021
• Hardware argument for AI timelines
  In the context of [[AI timelines]], the '''hardware argument''' is a common argument structure for ...0/10/why_early_singularities_are_softer.html and https://aiimpacts.org/how-ai-timelines-are-estimated/
  5 KB (740 words) - 00:24, 12 July 2021
• Future planning
  ** AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to ** if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what
  2 KB (285 words) - 18:53, 7 September 2020
• How doomed are ML safety approaches?
  I want to understand better the MIRI case for thinking that ML-based safety approaches (like [[Paul Christiano]]'s agenda) are so hopeless as to not be # a highly intelligent AI would see things humans cannot see, can arrive at unanticipated solutions,
  5 KB (765 words) - 02:32, 28 March 2021
• My understanding of how IDA works
  ...ned/doing things that are "good for Hugh" in some sense; (2) the resulting AI is competitive; (3) Hugh doesn't have a clue what is going on. Many explana ...arial training, verification, transparency, and other measures to keep the AI aligned fit into the scheme. This is a separate confusion I (and [https://w
  9 KB (1,597 words) - 00:27, 6 October 2020
• Minimal AGI vs task AGI
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  770 bytes (115 words) - 19:10, 27 February 2021
• Counterfactual of dropping a seed AI into a world without other capable AI
  ...self-improvement." [https://lw2.issarice.com/posts/5WECpYABCT62TJrhY/will-ai-undergo-discontinuous-progress] "When we build AGI we will be optimizing the chimp-equivalent-AI for usefulness, and it will look nothing like an actual chimp (in fact it w
  3 KB (426 words) - 20:51, 15 March 2021
• Comparison of AI takeoff scenarios
  ...rategic advantage? / Unipolar outcome? (i.e. not distributed) Can a single AI project get massively ahead (either by investing way more effort into build ...an does our economy today. The issue is the relative rate of growth of one AI system, across a broad range of tasks, relative to the entire rest of the w
  4 KB (635 words) - 00:50, 5 March 2021
• AlphaGo
  ...d its successor '''AlphaGo Zero''' are used to make various points in [[AI safety]]. * a single architecture / basic AI technique working for many different games ([[single-architecture generalit
  5 KB (672 words) - 20:19, 11 August 2021
• Iterated amplification
  * [[prosaic AI]] [[Category:AI safety]]
  1 KB (125 words) - 03:58, 26 April 2020
• Paperclip maximizer
  ...telligence/capability and values can vary orthogonally; a superintelligent AI need not realize that "making paperclips is stupid" and decide to maximize * [[instrumental convergence]]: even if an AI isn't deliberately trying to hurt us (as a terminal value), it will still p
  2 KB (344 words) - 23:29, 27 July 2020
• Evolution
  In discussions of AI risk, evolution (especially hominid evolution, as it is the only example we [[Category:AI safety]]
  799 bytes (112 words) - 23:46, 19 May 2021
• Will there be significant changes to the world prior to some critical AI capability threshold being reached?
  '''Will there be significant changes to the world prior to some critical AI capability threshold being reached?''' This is currently one of the questio [[Eliezer]]: "And the relative rate of growth between AI capabilities and human capabilities, and the degree to which single investm
  2 KB (251 words) - 02:40, 28 March 2021
• Human safety problem
  ...s. For instance, [[distributional shift]] is an AI safety problem where an AI trained in one environment will behave poorly when deployed in an unfamilia ! AI safety problem !! Human safety problem
  3 KB (379 words) - 20:36, 11 November 2021
• Value learning
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  159 bytes (19 words) - 04:53, 30 March 2021
• Rapid capability gain vs AGI progress
  * [[rapid capability gain]] seems to refer to how well a ''single'' AI system improves over time, e.g. [[AlphaGo]] going from "no knowledge of any * AGI progress refers to progress of AI systems in general, i.e. if you plot the state of the art over time
  774 bytes (121 words) - 19:17, 27 February 2021
• List of technical AI alignment agendas
  This is a '''list of technical AI alignment agendas'''. * [[Comprehensive AI services]]
  586 bytes (56 words) - 21:29, 2 April 2021
• Jessica Taylor
  The most important posts for AI strategy are: ...129 My current take on the Paul-MIRI disagreement on alignability of messy AI]
  300 bytes (42 words) - 19:10, 27 February 2021
• Prosaic AI
  what are the possibilities for prosaic AI? i.e. if prosaic AI happened, then what are some possible reasons for why this happened? some i ...xisting ML systems (or straightforward tweaks to them) somehow produces an AI that fully "understands" things and can do everything humans can; (2) there
  2 KB (247 words) - 19:10, 27 February 2021
• List of disagreements in AI safety
  ...sagreements in AI safety''' which collects the list of things people in AI safety seem to most frequently and deeply disagree about. ...d/1wI21XP-lRa6mi5h0dq_USooz0LpysdhS/view Clarifying some key hypotheses in AI alignment].</ref> (there are more posts like this, i think? find them)
  21 KB (3,254 words) - 11:00, 26 February 2022
• The Uncertain Future
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  508 bytes (62 words) - 19:12, 27 February 2021
• Deconfusion
  ...echnical AI alignment. The term has since been used in contexts outside of AI alignment as well. [[Category:AI safety]]
  346 bytes (55 words) - 19:18, 27 February 2021
• AI safety field consensus
  People in [[AI safety]] tend to [[List of disagreements in AI safety|disagree about many things]]. However, there is also wide agreement about s * advanced AI will have a huge impact on the world
  2 KB (272 words) - 01:33, 13 May 2020
• Wei Dai
  '''Wei Dai''' is an AI safety researcher. In the technical AI safety community he is most well-known as the inventor of [[updateless decision th * [[human safety problem]]s
  387 bytes (51 words) - 20:47, 11 August 2021
• Agent foundations
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  1 KB (195 words) - 19:08, 27 February 2021
• Simple core
  ...mple core''' is a term that has been used to describe various things in AI safety. I think the "simple" part is intended to capture that the thing is human-u * Simple core to [[corrigibility]]<ref>https://ai-alignment.com/corrigibility-3039e668638</ref><ref>https://www.greaterwrong.
  824 bytes (120 words) - 21:32, 2 April 2021
• Coherence and goal-directed agency discussion
  ...ssions in AI alignment|big discussions]]" that has been taking place in AI safety in 2018&ndash;2020 is about [[coherence argument]]s and [[goal-directed]] a https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/tHxXdAn8Yuiy9y2pZ/ai-safety-without-goal-directed-behavior
  1 KB (183 words) - 19:09, 27 February 2021
• List of terms used to describe the intelligence of an agent
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  782 bytes (108 words) - 20:56, 26 March 2021
• Comparison of terms related to agency
  * does it pursue omohundro's "basic AI drives"? (i.e. it is the subject of instrumental convergence) * mindblind AI
  4 KB (534 words) - 19:09, 27 February 2021
• MIRI vs Paul research agenda hypotheses
  * "The first AI systems capable of pivotal acts will use good consequentialist reasoning." * "The default AI development path will not produce good consequentialist reasoning at the to
  4 KB (702 words) - 03:57, 26 April 2020
• Selection effect for who builds AGI
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  815 bytes (133 words) - 19:18, 27 February 2021
• List of big discussions in AI alignment
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  212 bytes (21 words) - 19:10, 27 February 2021
• UDASSA
  [[Category:AI safety]]
  14 KB (2,432 words) - 09:13, 8 January 2023
• Late singularity
  ...ctually better? if AGI is developed in 200 years, what does this say about ai xrisk? this could happen for several reasons: ...l be much harder than building agi", then this might push you to think "ai safety is basically impossible for humans without intelligence enhancement to solv
  1 KB (248 words) - 21:33, 4 April 2021
• AI prepping
  '''AI prepping''' refers to selfish actions one can take in order to survive when It's not clear whether any really good actions for AI prepping exist. Some reasons for optimism are:
  6 KB (968 words) - 04:20, 26 November 2022
• Lumpiness
  ...ften used by [[Robin Hanson]] to describe things like innovation, secrets, AI progress, citations. ...ot lumpy. Aren't power laws lumpy? actually maybe he's only saying that if AI progress is lumpy, then its citation patterns should be even lumpier than u
  4 KB (648 words) - 06:53, 3 June 2020
• Laplace's rule of succession argument for AI timelines
  The '''Laplace's rule of succession argument for AI timelines''' uses [[wikipedia:Rule of succession|Laplace's rule of successi ....issarice.com/posts/Ayu5im98u8FeMWoBZ/my-personal-cruxes-for-working-on-ai-safety#AI_timelines
  1 KB (218 words) - 02:04, 5 April 2021
• Statistical analysis of expert timelines argument for AI timelines
  ...analysis of experts' AI timelines to come up with some overall estimate of AI timelines. It punts the question of "but where did the experts get their op ..."AI researchers attending X conference", "AI researchers in general", "AI safety researchers").
  641 bytes (101 words) - 05:10, 9 April 2021
• Kasparov window
  I think [[Eliezer]]'s point is that when there's more hardware behind an AI project, the Kasparov window is narrower. ...series of blog posts from [[AI Impacts]] https://aiimpacts.org/?s=time+for+ai+to+cross
  320 bytes (55 words) - 22:02, 4 January 2021
• Selection effect for successful formalizations
  ....com/posts/6skeZgctugzBBEBw3/ai-alignment-podcast-an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment] [[Category:AI safety]]
  746 bytes (115 words) - 20:41, 12 April 2021

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