Difference between revisions of "Fractional progress argument for AI timelines"
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"One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress." https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/ | "One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress." https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/ | ||
| + | "How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors | ||
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| + | [[Category:AI safety]] | ||
[[Category:AI timelines arguments]] | [[Category:AI timelines arguments]] | ||
Revision as of 01:41, 5 April 2021
"One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress." https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/
"How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?" https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors
