AI timelines
AI timelines refers to the question of when we will see advanced AI technology.
For now, see List of disagreements in AI safety#AI timelines
Usage of the term
TODO: explain things like "short timelines", "long timelines", "my timelines"
Standalone estimates of AI timelines
- Fractional progress argument for AI timelines
- Hardware argument for AI timelines
- Laplace's rule of succession argument for AI timelines
- Statistical analysis of expert timelines argument for AI timelines
- Reference class forecasting on human achievements argument for AI timelines
