Summary of my beliefs
This is my version of the table created by Brian Tomasik[1] and Pablo Stafforini.[2] Like Pablo, confidence is operationalized as my estimate of whether I would change my mind if I spent more time thinking about the topic.
| Belief | Probability | Confidence | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.) | |||
| Eternalism on philosophy of time | |||
| Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems | |||
| By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 | |||
| Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled | |||
| Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) | |||
| Soft AGI takeoff | |||
| "Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?" Answer: nominalism | |||
| A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all | |||
| Moral anti-realism | |||
| The universe/multiverse is finite | |||
| Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens | |||
| Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future | |||
| By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past | |||
| Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it | |||
| Crop cultivation prevents net suffering | |||
| Compatibilism on free will | |||
| Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing | |||
| The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a | |||
| "Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?" Answer: subjective | |||
| Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness | |||
| Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents | |||
| Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build | |||
| The Foundational Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future | |||
| At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous | |||
| Modal realism | |||
| Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI | |||
| Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future | |||
| Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin) | |||
| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) | |||
| The Machine Intelligence Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future | |||
| A full world government will develop before human-level AGI | |||
| Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox | |||
| Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle | |||
| Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future | |||
| Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort |
