Difference between revisions of "Summary of my beliefs"
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− | This is my version of the table created by [[Brian Tomasik]]<ref>https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/</ref> and [[Pablo Stafforini]].<ref>http://www.stafforini.com/blog/my-beliefs-updated/</ref> | + | This is my version of the table created by [[Brian Tomasik]]<ref>https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/</ref> and [[Pablo Stafforini]].<ref>http://www.stafforini.com/blog/my-beliefs-updated/</ref> Like Pablo, confidence is operationalized as my estimate of whether I would change my mind if I spent more time thinking about the topic. |
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Revision as of 06:17, 10 November 2020
This is my version of the table created by Brian Tomasik[1] and Pablo Stafforini.[2] Like Pablo, confidence is operationalized as my estimate of whether I would change my mind if I spent more time thinking about the topic.
Belief | Probability | Confidence | Comments |
---|---|---|---|
Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.) | |||
Eternalism on philosophy of time | |||
Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems | |||
By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 | |||
Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled | |||
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) | |||
Soft AGI takeoff | |||
"Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?" Answer: nominalism | |||
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all | |||
Moral anti-realism | |||
The universe/multiverse is finite | |||
Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens | |||
Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future | |||
By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past | |||
Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it | |||
Crop cultivation prevents net suffering | |||
Compatibilism on free will | |||
Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing | |||
The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a | |||
"Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?" Answer: subjective | |||
Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness | |||
Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents | |||
Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build | |||
The Foundational Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future | |||
At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous | |||
Modal realism | |||
Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI | |||
Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future | |||
Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin) | |||
A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) | |||
The Machine Intelligence Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future | |||
A full world government will develop before human-level AGI | |||
Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox | |||
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle | |||
Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future | |||
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort |