https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&feed=atom&action=historySecret sauce for intelligence - Revision history2024-03-29T00:35:10ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.31.6https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=2370&oldid=prevIssa: /* Evidence */2021-05-19T23:45:23Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Evidence</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at [[lumpiness]] of innovations in general, e.g. "Hanson answers that there’s a large literature on economic and ecological innovations, basically saying that the vast majority of innovation consists of small gains. It’s lots of little steps over time that slowly make various fields better."<ref>https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf#page=556</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at [[lumpiness]] of innovations in general, e.g. "Hanson answers that there’s a large literature on economic and ecological innovations, basically saying that the vast majority of innovation consists of small gains. It’s lots of little steps over time that slowly make various fields better."<ref>https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf#page=556</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at citation [[lumpiness]] in CS/AI/ML (specifically, searching for a deviation from other fields), and deviations in innovation lumpiness (relative to e.g. software in general). "Presumably the basis for this claim is that some people think they see a different distribution among some subset of AI software, perhaps including machine learning software. I don’t see it yet, but the obvious way for them to convince skeptics like me is to create and analyze a formal dataset of software projects and innovations. Show us a significantly-deviating subset of AI programs with more economic scope, generality, and lumpiness in gains. Statistics from such an analysis could let us numerically estimate the chances of a single small team encompassing a big fraction of AGI software power and value."<ref>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/03/how-different-agi-software.html</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at citation [[lumpiness]] in CS/AI/ML (specifically, searching for a deviation from other fields), and deviations in innovation lumpiness (relative to e.g. software in general). "Presumably the basis for this claim is that some people think they see a different distribution among some subset of AI software, perhaps including machine learning software. I don’t see it yet, but the obvious way for them to convince skeptics like me is to create and analyze a formal dataset of software projects and innovations. Show us a significantly-deviating subset of AI programs with more economic scope, generality, and lumpiness in gains. Statistics from such an analysis could let us numerically estimate the chances of a single small team encompassing a big fraction of AGI software power and value."<ref>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/03/how-different-agi-software.html</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Hominid evolution</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Hominid <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">[[</ins>evolution<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Comparing scientific ability in chimps vs humans suggests that some final piece was added to chimp cognition in a relatively short span of time to greatly improve the level of general intelligence, suggesting some kind of secret sauce. (This can also suggest a [[Missing gear for intelligence#Evidence|missing gear]], if the final piece was just some minor tweaks.)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Comparing scientific ability in chimps vs humans suggests that some final piece was added to chimp cognition in a relatively short span of time to greatly improve the level of general intelligence, suggesting some kind of secret sauce. (This can also suggest a [[Missing gear for intelligence#Evidence|missing gear]], if the final piece was just some minor tweaks.)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The difference in general intelligence between humans and chimps suggests evolution discovered intelligence relatively quickly<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The difference in general intelligence between humans and chimps suggests evolution discovered intelligence relatively quickly<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=2314&oldid=prevIssa: /* See also */2021-04-23T19:13:13Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">See also</span></span></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Missing gear vs secret sauce]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Missing gear vs secret sauce]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Progress in self-improvement]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Progress in self-improvement]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* [[Textbook test for AI theory]]</ins></div></td></tr>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Notes==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Notes==</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1621&oldid=prevIssa: /* Evidence */2020-10-14T00:23:38Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Evidence</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:23, 14 October 2020</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Content argument: looking at historical AI development, key insights have played a relatively small role<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Content argument: looking at historical AI development, key insights have played a relatively small role<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Some reason to suspect that there's a common core to a bunch of intellectual activities<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Some reason to suspect that there's a common core to a bunch of intellectual activities<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* "Second, he asserts that the brain “just doesn’t look all that complicated” in comparison to human-made pieces of technology such as computer operating systems (p.444)." [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lgcBauWyYk774gBwKn8P_h8_wL9vLLiWBr6JMmEd_-I/edit#]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Discovery by human or AI==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Discovery by human or AI==</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1556&oldid=prevIssa: /* Evidence */2020-07-26T23:17:18Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Evidence</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 23:17, 26 July 2020</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The difference in general intelligence between humans and chimps suggests evolution discovered intelligence relatively quickly<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The difference in general intelligence between humans and chimps suggests evolution discovered intelligence relatively quickly<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Evolution argument: human intelligence was built by evolution, suggesting that AGI can also be built incrementally/iteratively<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Evolution argument: human intelligence was built by evolution, suggesting that AGI can also be built incrementally/iteratively<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The information content of the human genome is about 750 megabytes,<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_genome#Information_content</ref> and gives one upper bound of how much information must be baked into an AI (rather than learned by interacting with the environment). Taking into account the fact that most of the DNA is junk and that the genes for the brain are only a part of the entire genome further reduces the bound.<ref name="jane-street-debate">https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=17yLL7B7yRrhV3J9NuiVuac3hNmjeKTVHnqiEa6UQpJk</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The information content of the human genome is about 750 megabytes,<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_genome#Information_content</ref> and gives one upper bound of how much information must be baked into an AI (rather than learned by interacting with the environment). Taking into account the fact that most of the DNA is junk and that the genes for the brain are only a part of the entire genome further reduces the bound.<ref name="jane-street-debate">https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=17yLL7B7yRrhV3J9NuiVuac3hNmjeKTVHnqiEa6UQpJk<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline"></ref><ref>https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jd9LajtGWv93NC8uo/source-code-size-vs-learned-model-size-in-ml-and-in-humans</ins></ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* the [[science argument]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* the [[science argument]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* looking at things like GPT-2 and GPT-3 [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/ZFtesgbY9XwtqqyZ5/human-psycholinguists-a-critical-appraisal] [https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* looking at things like GPT-2 and GPT-3 [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/ZFtesgbY9XwtqqyZ5/human-psycholinguists-a-critical-appraisal] [https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3]</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1512&oldid=prevIssa at 17:22, 24 June 20202020-06-24T17:22:28Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Content argument: looking at historical AI development, key insights have played a relatively small role<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Content argument: looking at historical AI development, key insights have played a relatively small role<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Some reason to suspect that there's a common core to a bunch of intellectual activities<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Some reason to suspect that there's a common core to a bunch of intellectual activities<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">==Discovery by human or AI==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">I think in a standard visualization of "secret sauce", the secret sauce is imagined as being discovered by human AI researchers. This makes sense because if there ''is'' a secret sauce to be discovered, and it hasn't been discovered yet, then the AI that exists at that point in time is not that smart, so it can't discover the secret sauce.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">But if a secret sauce exists, then it was discovered by a blind search (namely, evolution), so an alternative visualization is that if a secret sauce exists, it will be discovered by machine learning systems using search/gradient-descent-like mechanisms.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">See also: [[prosaic AI]].</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Is a secret sauce sufficient for a discontinuity?==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Is a secret sauce sufficient for a discontinuity?==</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1501&oldid=prevIssa: /* See also */2020-06-24T16:43:25Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">See also</span></span></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 16:43, 24 June 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l49" >Line 49:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 49:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Prosaic AI]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Prosaic AI]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Missing gear vs secret sauce]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[Missing gear vs secret sauce]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* [[Progress in self-improvement]]</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Notes==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Notes==</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1425&oldid=prevIssa at 00:45, 10 June 20202020-06-10T00:45:36Z<p></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<col class="diff-marker" />
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td>
<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:45, 10 June 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l38" >Line 38:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 38:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Historical lack of discontinuities, even among "simple" things<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref> -- actually, this point doesn't really say anything about secret sauce; it's instead saying that even given secret sauce, we shouldn't expect a discontinuity</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Historical lack of discontinuities, even among "simple" things<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref> -- actually, this point doesn't really say anything about secret sauce; it's instead saying that even given secret sauce, we shouldn't expect a discontinuity</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Even if there is a secret sauce, AI takeoff could still be continuous if hardware is a bottleneck (i.e. we might discover all the important facts about intelligence early on but not have enough computing power to run it cheaply).</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The [[prosaic AI]] argument is also relevant here; we might have already discovered the secret sauce.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==See also==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==See also==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l47" >Line 47:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 51:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Notes==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==Notes==</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">Even if there is a secret sauce, AI takeoff could still be continuous if hardware is a bottleneck (i.e. we might discover all the important facts about intelligence early on but not have enough computing power to run it cheaply).</del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To what extent is this the same debate as [[something like realism about rationality]]? It seems like if intelligence/rationality is simple, then there ''will'' be a secret sauce. But if it's not simple it could go either way (maybe there's a final essential "gear" that needs to be added to make things really work, in which case there is a secret sauce, or maybe everything just gradually improves and there's nothing like a "last gear"). So my initial thought is that intelligibility of intelligence implies secret sauce, but not conversely. Now, about rationality realism specifically, I'm not sure.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>To what extent is this the same debate as [[something like realism about rationality]]? It seems like if intelligence/rationality is simple, then there ''will'' be a secret sauce. But if it's not simple it could go either way (maybe there's a final essential "gear" that needs to be added to make things really work, in which case there is a secret sauce, or maybe everything just gradually improves and there's nothing like a "last gear"). So my initial thought is that intelligibility of intelligence implies secret sauce, but not conversely. Now, about rationality realism specifically, I'm not sure.</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1424&oldid=prevIssa at 00:42, 10 June 20202020-06-10T00:42:01Z<p></p>
<table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface">
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:42, 10 June 2020</td>
</tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l34" >Line 34:</td>
<td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 34:</td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Content argument: looking at historical AI development, key insights have played a relatively small role<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Content argument: looking at historical AI development, key insights have played a relatively small role<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Some reason to suspect that there's a common core to a bunch of intellectual activities<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Some reason to suspect that there's a common core to a bunch of intellectual activities<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del class="diffchange diffchange-inline">* </del>Historical lack of discontinuities, even among "simple" things<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref> -- actually, this point doesn't really say anything about secret sauce; it's instead saying that even given secret sauce, we shouldn't expect a discontinuity</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">==Is a secret sauce sufficient for a discontinuity?==</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div> </div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>Historical lack of discontinuities, even among "simple" things<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref> -- actually, this point doesn't really say anything about secret sauce; it's instead saying that even given secret sauce, we shouldn't expect a discontinuity</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==See also==</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>==See also==</div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1423&oldid=prevIssa: /* Evidence */2020-06-10T00:39:41Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Evidence</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:39, 10 June 2020</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>What kinds of evidence would shift our beliefs to one side of the disagreement or the other? This section lists all the things that have been given as reasons for believing or not believing in a secret sauce.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>What kinds of evidence would shift our beliefs to one side of the disagreement or the other? This section lists all the things that have been given as reasons for believing or not believing in a secret sauce.</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[List of breakthroughs plausibly needed for AGI]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* [[List of breakthroughs plausibly needed for AGI]]<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">: We can enumerate discrete advances in our understanding of AI, like Bayes nets and Judea Pearl's work on causality. The idea is to extrapolate from here, and say that building an AGI requires a few more of these things.</ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at [[lumpiness]] of innovations in general, e.g. "Hanson answers that there’s a large literature on economic and ecological innovations, basically saying that the vast majority of innovation consists of small gains. It’s lots of little steps over time that slowly make various fields better."<ref>https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf#page=556</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at [[lumpiness]] of innovations in general, e.g. "Hanson answers that there’s a large literature on economic and ecological innovations, basically saying that the vast majority of innovation consists of small gains. It’s lots of little steps over time that slowly make various fields better."<ref>https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf#page=556</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at citation [[lumpiness]] in CS/AI/ML (specifically, searching for a deviation from other fields), and deviations in innovation lumpiness (relative to e.g. software in general). "Presumably the basis for this claim is that some people think they see a different distribution among some subset of AI software, perhaps including machine learning software. I don’t see it yet, but the obvious way for them to convince skeptics like me is to create and analyze a formal dataset of software projects and innovations. Show us a significantly-deviating subset of AI programs with more economic scope, generality, and lumpiness in gains. Statistics from such an analysis could let us numerically estimate the chances of a single small team encompassing a big fraction of AGI software power and value."<ref>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/03/how-different-agi-software.html</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at citation [[lumpiness]] in CS/AI/ML (specifically, searching for a deviation from other fields), and deviations in innovation lumpiness (relative to e.g. software in general). "Presumably the basis for this claim is that some people think they see a different distribution among some subset of AI software, perhaps including machine learning software. I don’t see it yet, but the obvious way for them to convince skeptics like me is to create and analyze a formal dataset of software projects and innovations. Show us a significantly-deviating subset of AI programs with more economic scope, generality, and lumpiness in gains. Statistics from such an analysis could let us numerically estimate the chances of a single small team encompassing a big fraction of AGI software power and value."<ref>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/03/how-different-agi-software.html</ref></div></td></tr>
</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Secret_sauce_for_intelligence&diff=1422&oldid=prevIssa: /* Evidence */2020-06-10T00:38:02Z<p><span dir="auto"><span class="autocomment">Evidence</span></span></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:38, 10 June 2020</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at [[lumpiness]] of innovations in general, e.g. "Hanson answers that there’s a large literature on economic and ecological innovations, basically saying that the vast majority of innovation consists of small gains. It’s lots of little steps over time that slowly make various fields better."<ref>https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf#page=556</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at [[lumpiness]] of innovations in general, e.g. "Hanson answers that there’s a large literature on economic and ecological innovations, basically saying that the vast majority of innovation consists of small gains. It’s lots of little steps over time that slowly make various fields better."<ref>https://intelligence.org/files/AIFoomDebate.pdf#page=556</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at citation [[lumpiness]] in CS/AI/ML (specifically, searching for a deviation from other fields), and deviations in innovation lumpiness (relative to e.g. software in general). "Presumably the basis for this claim is that some people think they see a different distribution among some subset of AI software, perhaps including machine learning software. I don’t see it yet, but the obvious way for them to convince skeptics like me is to create and analyze a formal dataset of software projects and innovations. Show us a significantly-deviating subset of AI programs with more economic scope, generality, and lumpiness in gains. Statistics from such an analysis could let us numerically estimate the chances of a single small team encompassing a big fraction of AGI software power and value."<ref>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/03/how-different-agi-software.html</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Looking at citation [[lumpiness]] in CS/AI/ML (specifically, searching for a deviation from other fields), and deviations in innovation lumpiness (relative to e.g. software in general). "Presumably the basis for this claim is that some people think they see a different distribution among some subset of AI software, perhaps including machine learning software. I don’t see it yet, but the obvious way for them to convince skeptics like me is to create and analyze a formal dataset of software projects and innovations. Show us a significantly-deviating subset of AI programs with more economic scope, generality, and lumpiness in gains. Statistics from such an analysis could let us numerically estimate the chances of a single small team encompassing a big fraction of AGI software power and value."<ref>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/03/how-different-agi-software.html</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><del style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">* The information content of the human genome is about 750 megabytes,<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_genome#Information_content</ref> and gives one upper bound of how much information must be baked into an AI (rather than learned by interacting with the environment). Taking into account the fact that most of the DNA is junk and that the genes for the brain are only a part of the entire genome further reduces the bound.<ref name="jane-street-debate">https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=17yLL7B7yRrhV3J9NuiVuac3hNmjeKTVHnqiEa6UQpJk</ref></del></div></td><td colspan="2"> </td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Hominid evolution</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* Hominid evolution</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Comparing scientific ability in chimps vs humans suggests that some final piece was added to chimp cognition in a relatively short span of time to greatly improve the level of general intelligence, suggesting some kind of secret sauce. (This can also suggest a [[Missing gear for intelligence#Evidence|missing gear]], if the final piece was just some minor tweaks.)</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Comparing scientific ability in chimps vs humans suggests that some final piece was added to chimp cognition in a relatively short span of time to greatly improve the level of general intelligence, suggesting some kind of secret sauce. (This can also suggest a [[Missing gear for intelligence#Evidence|missing gear]], if the final piece was just some minor tweaks.)</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The difference in general intelligence between humans and chimps suggests evolution discovered intelligence relatively quickly<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** The difference in general intelligence between humans and chimps suggests evolution discovered intelligence relatively quickly<ref>https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/#One_algorithm</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Evolution argument: human intelligence was built by evolution, suggesting that AGI can also be built incrementally/iteratively<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>** Evolution argument: human intelligence was built by evolution, suggesting that AGI can also be built incrementally/iteratively<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref></div></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">** The information content of the human genome is about 750 megabytes,<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_genome#Information_content</ref> and gives one upper bound of how much information must be baked into an AI (rather than learned by interacting with the environment). Taking into account the fact that most of the DNA is junk and that the genes for the brain are only a part of the entire genome further reduces the bound.<ref name="jane-street-debate">https://docs.google.com/document/pub?id=17yLL7B7yRrhV3J9NuiVuac3hNmjeKTVHnqiEa6UQpJk</ref></ins></div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* the [[science argument]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* the [[science argument]]</div></td></tr>
<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* looking at things like GPT-2 and GPT-3 [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/ZFtesgbY9XwtqqyZ5/human-psycholinguists-a-critical-appraisal] [https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>* looking at things like GPT-2 and GPT-3 [https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/ZFtesgbY9XwtqqyZ5/human-psycholinguists-a-critical-appraisal] [https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3]</div></td></tr>
</table>Issa