https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Reference_class_forecasting_on_human_achievements_argument_for_AI_timelines&feed=atom&action=historyReference class forecasting on human achievements argument for AI timelines - Revision history2024-03-29T08:31:58ZRevision history for this page on the wikiMediaWiki 1.31.6https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Reference_class_forecasting_on_human_achievements_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2434&oldid=prevIssa at 00:14, 12 July 20212021-07-12T00:14:20Z<p></p>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref> This estimate might then further be adjusted according to the inputs going into AGI creation (e.g. number of researchers and amount spent on computation), as is done in the Open Philanthropy report.</div></td><td class='diff-marker'> </td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref> This estimate might then further be adjusted according to the inputs going into AGI creation (e.g. number of researchers and amount spent on computation), as is done in the Open Philanthropy report.</div></td></tr>
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<tr><td colspan="2"> </td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[MTAIR project]]'s paths to HLMI module also analogizes HLMI creation to radically transformative events and other technologies.</ins></div></td></tr>
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</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Reference_class_forecasting_on_human_achievements_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2273&oldid=prevIssa at 01:42, 5 April 20212021-04-05T01:42:57Z<p></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 01:42, 5 April 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref> This estimate might then further be adjusted according to the inputs going into AGI creation (e.g. number of researchers and amount spent on computation).</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref> This estimate might then further be adjusted according to the inputs going into AGI creation (e.g. number of researchers and amount spent on computation)<ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">, as is done in the Open Philanthropy report</ins>.</div></td></tr>
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</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Reference_class_forecasting_on_human_achievements_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2272&oldid=prevIssa at 01:42, 5 April 20212021-04-05T01:42:41Z<p></p>
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<td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 01:42, 5 April 2021</td>
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<tr><td class='diff-marker'>−</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #ffe49c; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref></div></td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref> <ins class="diffchange diffchange-inline">This estimate might then further be adjusted according to the inputs going into AGI creation (e.g. number of researchers and amount spent on computation).</ins></div></td></tr>
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</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Reference_class_forecasting_on_human_achievements_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2270&oldid=prevIssa at 01:39, 5 April 20212021-04-05T01:39:09Z<p></p>
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</table>Issahttps://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Reference_class_forecasting_on_human_achievements_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2269&oldid=prevIssa: Created page with "'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various reference classes like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an o..."2021-04-05T01:38:47Z<p>Created page with "'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various <a href="/index.php?title=Reference_class&action=edit&redlink=1" class="new" title="Reference class (page does not exist)">reference classes</a> like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an o..."</p>
<p><b>New page</b></p><div>'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various [[reference class]]es like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an [[outside view]] probability of [[AI timelines]]. The [[Open Philanthropy]] report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.<ref>https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ref><br />
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[[Category:AI safety]]</div>Issa