Difference between revisions of "Reference class forecasting on human achievements argument for AI timelines"
(Created page with "'''Reference class forecasting on human achievements''' uses various reference classes like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an o...") |
|||
| Line 6: | Line 6: | ||
[[Category:AI safety]] | [[Category:AI safety]] | ||
| + | [[Category:AI timelines arguments]] | ||
Revision as of 01:39, 5 April 2021
Reference class forecasting on human achievements uses various reference classes like "ambitious STEM technology" or "notable mathematical conjectures" to get an outside view probability of AI timelines. The Open Philanthropy report on semi-informative priors is an example of this type of forecasting.[1]
