Future planning

things to talk about:

• the most decision-relevant questions for me right now (everything else should feed into one of these questions):
  • AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things.
  • if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support.
  • if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for prepping)
  • how likely is the end of the world?
  • when will AGI come?