Future planning

• the most decision-relevant questions for me right now (everything else should feed into one of these questions):
  • AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things.
  • if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support.
  • if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for prepping)
  • how likely is the end of the world?
  • when will AGI come?

Example scenarios:

Name of scenario	Next big thing?	AI safety technical agenda	What will end of the world look like?	How likely is the world to end?	When will the world end/reach a singularity/cure aging?	What I should do
Eliezerian end of world	AGI	MIRI?	FOOM/AI takeover	Highly likely?	10-20 years?	Don't have kids. Probably don't even bother with wife search. Focus on AI safety research, either field building or figuring out how to contribute to MIRI-like technical work.
Eliezerian end of world, but longer timelines	AGI	MIRI?	FOOM/AI takeover	Highly likely?	40 years
Eliezerian end of world, but even longer timelines	AGI	MIRI?	FOOM/AI takeover	Highly likely?	60 years
Age of em	WBE
Paul's end of world	AGI	?			20 years?	AI prepping???
CAIS
GPT-3-like limited AI causes big changes in the world
Great Stagnation (world stays basically the same for the next 100 years)
Super long AI timelines (AI won't come for 100 years)