Comparison of AI takeoff scenarios

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Scenario Significant changes to the world prior to critical AI capability threshold being reached? Intelligence explosion? Decisive strategic advantage? / Unipolar outcome? (i.e. not distributed)
Yudkowskian hard takeoff No Yes Yes
Paul's slow takeoff Yes Yes No
Daniel Kokotajlo Yes Yes Yes
Hansonian slow takeoff Yes No?[notes 1] No
Eric Drexler's CAIS Yes No? I think he says something weird, like all of the AI systems together recursively self-improving at the all-AI-services-combined level, without a single agent-like AI that self-improves. No?

See also

Notes

  1. In some places Hanson says things like "You may recall that I did not dispute that an AI based economy would grow faster than does our economy today. The issue is the relative rate of growth of one AI system, across a broad range of tasks, relative to the entire rest of the world at that time." [1] This sounds more like Paul's takeoff scenario. I'm not clear on how the Paul and Hanson scenarios differ.