Narrow window argument against continuous takeoff
"When you fold a whole chain of differential equations in on itself like this, it should either peter out rapidly as improvements fail to yield further improvements, or else go FOOM. An exactly right law of diminishing returns that lets the system fly through the soft takeoff keyhole is unlikely - far more unlikely than seeing such behavior in a system with a roughly-constant underlying optimizer, like evolution improving brains, or human brains improving technology. Our present life is no good indicator of things to come."[1]
narrow window argument against soft takeoff: eliezer says at some points that you need the parameter k that controls the growth to be in a really narrow range for it to NOT go into either a FOOM or petering out. in contrast, i think buck/paul has said something like, if you try to model it with math, you typically get a soft takeoff? what's going on here?
