Analyzing disagreements

a cognitive reduction doesn't ask "why do i have free will?" but instead asks "why do i believe i have free will? what concrete mechanistic facts about the world corresponds to me having free will? what cognitive algorithms would make me ask 'why do i have free will?' if they happened to be the cognitive algorithms running in my mind?"

i want to ask similar questions about disagreements, particularly disagreements in ai safety about AI timelines, takeoff speed, simple core algorithm of agency, and so forth. why do people disagree? is it reasonable to have disagreements about this sort of thing? would we have expected these disagreements to arise prior to seeing the discussion?

one step forward in this kind of thinking is eliezer's "Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided", which gives a kind of rule of thumb about when we should expect debates to be one-sided vs multi-sided. (namely, if it's a simple question of fact, it should appear one-sided, but if it's a policy question with multiple parties who have different stakes and each policy affects people in complicated ways, then we should expect strong arguments on multiple sides)