Difference between revisions of "Comparison of AI takeoff scenarios"

Revision as of 01:01, 23 February 2020

Scenario	Significant changes to the world prior to critical AI capability threshold being reached?	Intelligence explosion?	Decisive strategic advantage? / Unipolar outcome?
Yudkowskian hard takeoff	No	Yes	Yes
Paul's slow takeoff	Yes	Yes	No
Daniel Kokotajlo	Yes	Yes	Yes
Hansonian slow takeoff	Yes	No?^[1]	No
Eric Drexler's CAIS	Yes	No? I think he says something weird, like all of the AI systems together recursively self-improving at the all-AI-services-combined level, without a single agent-like AI that self-improves.	No?

↑ In some places Hanson says things like "You may recall that I did not dispute that an AI based economy would grow faster than does our economy today. The issue is the relative rate of growth of one AI system, across a broad range of tasks, relative to the entire rest of the world at that time." [1] This sounds more like Paul's takeoff scenario. I'm not clear on how the Paul and Hanson scenarios differ.

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 | [[Daniel Kokotajlo]] || Yes || Yes || Yes
 |-
-| [[Hansonian]] slow takeoff || Yes || No || No
+| [[Hansonian]] slow takeoff || Yes || No?<ref>In some places Hanson says things like "You may recall that I did not dispute that an AI based economy would grow faster than does our economy today. The issue is the relative rate of growth of one AI system, across a broad range of tasks, relative to the entire rest of the world at that time." [https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10155848910529228?comment_id=10155848990064228&reply_comment_id=10155849018834228] This sounds more like Paul's takeoff scenario. I'm not clear on how the Paul and Hanson scenarios differ.</ref> || No
 |-
 | [[Eric Drexler]]'s CAIS || Yes || No? I think he says something weird, like all of the AI systems together recursively self-improving at the all-AI-services-combined level, without a single agent-like AI that self-improves. || No?
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