Difference between revisions of "Future planning"
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** AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things. | ** AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things. | ||
** if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support. | ** if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support. | ||
| − | ** if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for prepping) | + | ** if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for [[AI prepping|prepping]]) |
** how likely is the end of the world? | ** how likely is the end of the world? | ||
** when will AGI come? | ** when will AGI come? | ||
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| Age of em || WBE || | | Age of em || WBE || | ||
|- | |- | ||
| − | | Paul's end of world || AGI || ? || | + | | Paul's end of world || AGI || ? || || || 20 years? || [[AI prepping]]??? |
|- | |- | ||
| − | | Great Stagnation | + | | CAIS |
| + | |- | ||
| + | | GPT-3-like limited AI causes big changes in the world | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Great Stagnation (world stays basically the same for the next 100 years) || | ||
|- | |- | ||
| Super long AI timelines (AI won't come for 100 years) || | | Super long AI timelines (AI won't come for 100 years) || | ||
|} | |} | ||
Latest revision as of 18:53, 7 September 2020
- the most decision-relevant questions for me right now (everything else should feed into one of these questions):
- AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things.
- if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support.
- if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for prepping)
- how likely is the end of the world?
- when will AGI come?
Example scenarios:
| Name of scenario | Next big thing? | AI safety technical agenda | What will end of the world look like? | How likely is the world to end? | When will the world end/reach a singularity/cure aging? | What I should do |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliezerian end of world | AGI | MIRI? | FOOM/AI takeover | Highly likely? | 10-20 years? | Don't have kids. Probably don't even bother with wife search. Focus on AI safety research, either field building or figuring out how to contribute to MIRI-like technical work. |
| Eliezerian end of world, but longer timelines | AGI | MIRI? | FOOM/AI takeover | Highly likely? | 40 years | |
| Eliezerian end of world, but even longer timelines | AGI | MIRI? | FOOM/AI takeover | Highly likely? | 60 years | |
| Age of em | WBE | |||||
| Paul's end of world | AGI | ? | 20 years? | AI prepping??? | ||
| CAIS | ||||||
| GPT-3-like limited AI causes big changes in the world | ||||||
| Great Stagnation (world stays basically the same for the next 100 years) | ||||||
| Super long AI timelines (AI won't come for 100 years) |
