Future planning

• the most decision-relevant questions for me right now (everything else should feed into one of these questions):
  • AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things.
  • if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support.
  • if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for prepping)
  • how likely is the end of the world?
  • when will AGI come?

Example scenarios:

Name of scenario	Next big thing?	AI safety technical agenda	What will end of the world look like?	How likely is the world to end?	When will the world end/reach a singularity/cure aging?	What I should do
Eliezerian end of world	AGI	MIRI?	FOOM/AI takeover	Highly likely?	10-20 years?	Don't have kids. Probably don't even bother with wife search. Focus on AI safety research, either field building or figuring out how to contribute to MIRI-like technical work.
Eliezerian end of world, but longer timelines	AGI	MIRI?	FOOM/AI takeover	Highly likely?	40 years
Eliezerian end of world, but even longer timelines	AGI	MIRI?	FOOM/AI takeover	Highly likely?	60 years
Age of em	WBE
Paul's end of world	AGI	?			20 years?	AI prepping???
Great Stagnation (world stays basically the same for the next 100 years)
Super long AI timelines (AI won't come for 100 years)