Difference between revisions of "Future planning"
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** how likely is the end of the world? | ** how likely is the end of the world? | ||
** when will AGI come? | ** when will AGI come? | ||
| + | |||
| + | Example scenarios: | ||
| + | |||
| + | {| class="wikitable" | ||
| + | ! Name of scenario !! Next big thing? !! AI safety technical agenda !! What will end of the world look like? !! How likely is the world to end? !! When will the world end/reach a singularity/cure aging? | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | Eliezerian end of world || AGI || MIRI || FOOM/AI takeover || Highly likely? || 10-20 years? | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | | | ||
| + | |} | ||
Revision as of 07:46, 24 February 2020
things to talk about:
- the most decision-relevant questions for me right now (everything else should feed into one of these questions):
- AI safety vs something else? right now AI safety seems like the best candidate for the biggest/soonest change, but i want to investigate some other things.
- if AI safety, then what technical agenda seems best? this matters for (1) deciding what to do technical research on, if at all; (2) what technical research to pay attention to/support.
- if AI safety, then what will the end of the world look like (basically this is takeoff speeds + what the most likely failure mode looks like)? (this matters for prepping)
- how likely is the end of the world?
- when will AGI come?
Example scenarios:
| Name of scenario | Next big thing? | AI safety technical agenda | What will end of the world look like? | How likely is the world to end? | When will the world end/reach a singularity/cure aging? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliezerian end of world | AGI | MIRI | FOOM/AI takeover | Highly likely? | 10-20 years? |
