Difference between revisions of "Christiano's operationalization of slow takeoff"
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In a 2018 blog post, [[Paul Christiano]] provided the following operationalization of [[slow takeoff]]: "There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles. (Similarly, we’ll see an 8 year doubling before a 2 year doubling, etc.)"<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref> Subsequently, this operationalization has been cited by many others in discussions of [[AI takeoff]]. | In a 2018 blog post, [[Paul Christiano]] provided the following operationalization of [[slow takeoff]]: "There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles. (Similarly, we’ll see an 8 year doubling before a 2 year doubling, etc.)"<ref>https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/</ref> Subsequently, this operationalization has been cited by many others in discussions of [[AI takeoff]]. | ||
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| + | ==External links== | ||
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| + | * https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/AfGmsjGPXN97kNp57/arguments-about-fast-takeoff/comment/ZyJwKwDrX5jWujXxo -- a technical point about the mathematics of this operationalization | ||
| + | * https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/aFaKhG86tTrKvtAnT/against-gdp-as-a-metric-for-timelines-and-takeoff-speeds | ||
| + | * https://aiimpacts.org/precedents-for-economic-n-year-doubling-before-4n-year-doubling/ -- counterexamples to the operationalization looking at historical GDP progress | ||
==References== | ==References== | ||
Latest revision as of 23:48, 25 February 2021
In a 2018 blog post, Paul Christiano provided the following operationalization of slow takeoff: "There will be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles. (Similarly, we’ll see an 8 year doubling before a 2 year doubling, etc.)"[1] Subsequently, this operationalization has been cited by many others in discussions of AI takeoff.
External links
- https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/AfGmsjGPXN97kNp57/arguments-about-fast-takeoff/comment/ZyJwKwDrX5jWujXxo -- a technical point about the mathematics of this operationalization
- https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/aFaKhG86tTrKvtAnT/against-gdp-as-a-metric-for-timelines-and-takeoff-speeds
- https://aiimpacts.org/precedents-for-economic-n-year-doubling-before-4n-year-doubling/ -- counterexamples to the operationalization looking at historical GDP progress
