Summary of my beliefs - Revision history

Issa at 20:21, 11 November 2020

2020-11-11T20:21:48Z

Issa at 06:17, 10 November 2020

2020-11-10T06:17:59Z

Issa at 06:14, 10 November 2020

2020-11-10T06:14:03Z

Issa: shuffle lines

2020-11-10T06:08:50Z

shuffle lines

Issa at 06:05, 10 November 2020

2020-11-10T06:05:39Z

Issa: Created page with "This is my version of the table created by Brian Tomasikhttps://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ and Pablo Stafforini.http:..."

2020-11-10T06:05:17Z

Created page with "This is my version of the table created by Brian Tomasik<ref>https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/</ref> and Pablo Stafforini.<ref>http:..."

New page

This is my version of the table created by [[Brian Tomasik]]<ref>https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/</ref> and [[Pablo Stafforini]].<ref>http://www.stafforini.com/blog/my-beliefs-updated/</ref>

{| class="sortable wikitable"
! Belief !! Probability !! Confidence
|-
| "Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?" Answer: subjective
|-
| "Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?" Answer: nominalism
|-
| Compatibilism on free will
|-
| Moral anti-realism
|-
| Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle
|-
| Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it
|-
| Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens
|-
| Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort
|-
| Soft AGI takeoff
|-
| Eternalism on philosophy of time
|-
| Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness
|-
| Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox
|-
| By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
|-
| A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
|-
| By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past
|-
| The Foundational Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future
|-
| The Machine Intelligence Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future
|-
| Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future
|-
| Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled
|-
| Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents
|-
| The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a
|-
| Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems
|-
| Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future
|-
| Crop cultivation prevents net suffering
|-
| Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
|-
| Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)
|-
| Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future
|-
| Modal realism
|-
| Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)
|-
| At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous
|-
| The universe/multiverse is finite
|-
| Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build
|-
| A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
|-
| Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing
|-
| Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI
|-
| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)
|}

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 {| class="sortable wikitable"
-! Belief !! Probability !! Confidence !! Comments
+! Belief !! Inside view probability !! Confidence !! Probability after social update !! Comments
 |-
 | Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:17, 10 November 2020
Line 1:		Line 1:
−	This is my version of the table created by [[Brian Tomasik]]<ref>https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/</ref> and [[Pablo Stafforini]].<ref>http://www.stafforini.com/blog/my-beliefs-updated/</ref>	+	This is my version of the table created by [[Brian Tomasik]]<ref>https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/</ref> and [[Pablo Stafforini]].<ref>http://www.stafforini.com/blog/my-beliefs-updated/</ref> Like Pablo, confidence is operationalized as my estimate of whether I would change my mind if I spent more time thinking about the topic.

	{\| class="sortable wikitable"		{\| class="sortable wikitable"

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:05, 10 November 2020
Line 76:		Line 76:
	\| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)		\| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)
	\|}		\|}
		+
		+	==References==
		+
		+	<references/>

@@ Line 4: / Line 4: @@
 ! Belief !! Probability !! Confidence
 |-
-| "Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?" Answer: subjective
+| Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
 |-
-| "Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?" Answer: nominalism
+| Eternalism on philosophy of time
 |-
-| Compatibilism on free will
+| Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems
 |-
-| Moral anti-realism
+| By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
 |-
-| Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle
+| Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled
 |-
-| Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it
+| Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)
 |-
-| Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens
+| Soft AGI takeoff
 |-
-| Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort
+| "Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?" Answer: nominalism
 |-
-| Soft AGI takeoff
+| A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
 |-
-| Eternalism on philosophy of time
+| Moral anti-realism
 |-
-| Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness
+| The universe/multiverse is finite
 |-
-| Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox
+| Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens
 |-
-| By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
+| Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future
 |-
 | By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past
 |-
-| The Foundational Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future
+| Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it
 |-
-| The Machine Intelligence Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future
+| Crop cultivation prevents net suffering
 |-
-| Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future
+| Compatibilism on free will
 |-
-| Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled
+| Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing
 |-
 | The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a
 |-
-| Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems
+| "Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?" Answer: subjective
 |-
-| Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future
+| Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness
 |-
-| Crop cultivation prevents net suffering
+| Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents
 |-
-| Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
+| Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build
 |-
-| Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)
+| The Foundational Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future
 |-
-| Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future
+| At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous
 |-
 | Modal realism
 |-
 | Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)
 |-
-| At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous
+| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)
 |-
-| The universe/multiverse is finite
+| The Machine Intelligence Research Institute reduces net suffering in the far future
 |-
-| Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build
+| A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
 |-
-| A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
+| Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox
 |-
-| Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing
+| Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle
 |-
-| Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI
+| Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future
 |-
-| A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)
+| Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort
 |}