https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?action=history&feed=atom&title=Fractional_progress_argument_for_AI_timelines 2026-05-27T19:39:48Z Revision history for this page on the wiki MediaWiki 1.31.6 https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Fractional_progress_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2437&oldid=prev 2021-07-12T00:19:18Z

<p></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:19, 12 July 2021</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l4" >Line 4:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 4:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&quot;How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?&quot; https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&quot;How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?&quot; https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[MTAIR project]] also uses (as one of its many estimation methods) trends for rate of automation (with the cutoff that at 100% automation we will have AGI).</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:AI safety]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:AI safety]]</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:AI timelines arguments]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:AI timelines arguments]]</div></td></tr> </table>

Issa https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Fractional_progress_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2436&oldid=prev 2021-07-12T00:17:45Z

<p></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 00:17, 12 July 2021</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1" >Line 1:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">The &#039;&#039;&#039;fractional progress argument for AI timelines&#039;&#039;&#039; or the &#039;&#039;&#039;extrapolation argument for AI timelines&#039;&#039;&#039; takes existing trends in AI progress as well as some cutoff level for AGI to extrapolate when we will get AGI.</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&quot;One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress.&quot; https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&quot;One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress.&quot; https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> </table>

Issa https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Fractional_progress_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=2271&oldid=prev 2021-04-05T01:41:10Z

<p></p> <table class="diff diff-contentalign-left" data-mw="interface"> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <col class="diff-marker" /> <col class="diff-content" /> <tr class="diff-title" lang="en"> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">← Older revision</td> <td colspan="2" style="background-color: #fff; color: #222; text-align: center;">Revision as of 01:41, 5 April 2021</td> </tr><tr><td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno" id="mw-diff-left-l1" >Line 1:</td> <td colspan="2" class="diff-lineno">Line 1:</td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&quot;One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress.&quot; https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>&quot;One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress.&quot; https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/</div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">&quot;How capable are the best AI systems today compared to AGI? At the current rate of progress, how long will it be before we develop AGI?&quot; https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/report-semi-informative-priors</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;"></ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td colspan="2">&#160;</td><td class='diff-marker'>+</td><td style="color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #a3d3ff; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div><ins style="font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;">[[Category:AI safety]]</ins></div></td></tr> <tr><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:AI timelines arguments]]</div></td><td class='diff-marker'>&#160;</td><td style="background-color: #f8f9fa; color: #222; font-size: 88%; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 4px; border-radius: 0.33em; border-color: #eaecf0; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div>[[Category:AI timelines arguments]]</div></td></tr> </table>

Issa https://wiki.issarice.com/index.php?title=Fractional_progress_argument_for_AI_timelines&diff=1361&oldid=prev 2020-06-07T01:29:19Z

<p>Created page with &quot;&quot;One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate th...&quot;</p> <p><b>New page</b></p><div>&quot;One way of estimating how many years something will take is to estimate what fraction of progress toward it has been made over a fixed number of years, then to extrapolate the number of years needed for full progress.&quot; https://aiimpacts.org/surveys-on-fractional-progress-towards-hlai/<br /> <br /> [[Category:AI timelines arguments]]</div>

Issa